The Bullish Sign for 2022 That’s Being Ignored
Alpesh Patel|December 10, 2021
A new coronavirus variant… inflation… interest rates… supply chain issues…
If you follow the headlines, things certainly don’t look good.
But what if there were a market signal that told a different story?
That’s what I’m going to show you in my latest video.
I see an entirely different outlook for the market… one that’s being overlooked by the media.
And it paints a far more bullish picture for 2022.
It’s all in the video below.
What if I could give you a macro idea which I think’s overlooked?
I mean, consider what people are talking about at the moment. They’re thinking about the new variant of COVID, they’re thinking about inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain constraints.
I think in all of that, there is a macro picture that they’re forgetting, that they’re underestimating.
And let me share with you what that is. I’m going to share my screen and show you exactly what that is.
This is from Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. And it talks about global growth – that in 2021, yes, indeed, it matched our very high expectations. And remember what moves share prices. When our expectations are exceeded, share prices go up. If our expectations are quite low because of the factors I already mentioned, then it’s easier to exceed them. And if they’re exceeded, share prices will rise.
So whilst globally expectations had been exceeded – despite the fact those growth expectations were lofty – what does it actually look like for 2021? Sorry, 2022. That’s what’s important. And this is what it looks like.
And that excites me. Another strong year is coming in 2022. The source of this data… the IMF, Bloomberg – where I used to have my TV show, as you will know – and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as well. So we’ve got triplicate sources of data.
And what the consensus is, is that we’re forecasting a strong year of economic growth. People are forgetting this. And that economic growth is what’s going to fuel earnings, or profits of companies. And that profits of companies is what’s going to then exceed the expectations which have been dampened by worries about inflation, supply chain and so on. And as those earnings exceed expectations, stock prices should go up.
None of that can happen without another strong year in GDP, gross domestic product. That is the big idea.
But wait a minute. We’re still worried about COVID, aren’t we? Well, actually, are we?
This is the global effective protection rate. And going into 2022, you can see, yeah, it levels off in terms of hospitalizations and infections. That leveling-off is what’s key.
If we don’t have a leveling-off, then we have panic. We have governments which might overreact. But when we get that leveling-off, there’s a stability. There’s a certain certainty.
And that certainty is what the markets need because it means more consistent legislation, less panic and greater planning. That’s the other big macro idea that I think people are forgetting.
And where did I get that data from? Well, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research – buried deep in, Lord knows, the appendices and Page 56 or something. I think people are missing this.
And it’s important that it comes from a major investment bank because it’d be all very well if only I was the one to find that. Then I’d just be the cleverest person in the room. What’s the point of that? You need people with firepower also to have it and believe it and spread it. Then it might even just become a self-fulfilling prophecy that, yes, strong global growth will fuel earnings, those earnings will exceed our slightly depressed expectations and therefore prices should do well next year.
That’s my big, global, macro idea, which I think is being overlooked. I hope you found that useful. I will give you much, much more insight. I must read thousands of pages each week on economic analysis, whether it’s from hedge funds or investment banks. I will make sure I give you – and exclusively you – the best of the best of what I see and share that with you.
Thank you very much.
Want more content like this?