The Biggest Questions About the Downturn… Answered

|June 16, 2022

“Supposedly, they’re announcing the start of the recession in two weeks,” he said.

We nodded along and wondered where he heard such a thing.

“It’s already getting bad out there. Rising prices have taken all the profit out of it. And if I raise my prices, customers will walk away. I can’t win.”

For the paving contractor we just wrote a big check to… the price of crude is the price of business.

The higher it goes, the smaller his margins get.

“This price is good this week,” he said. “After that, it’ll surely be higher.”

That’s inflation in America, folks. Buy now because whatever you want will be more expensive tomorrow… if you can get it.

Folks have entered panic mode.

Everybody is talking about the downturn.

And doing what the herd seems to do so well these days, they’re making up more stories.

I Declare…

According to our man on the street (or is it our man making the street?), “somebody” is about to declare a recession… even before any GDP numbers have been announced.

Of course, he’s right.

His timing is just off by a few weeks. We won’t have the second quarter’s growth figures until the middle of July. But there’s no doubt we’re in a recession.

Trillions of dollars’ worth of wealth has been wiped away. The housing market has gone, according to one insider, into “hibernation.” And stocks, well, you know.

Let’s Talk

We got on Zoom on Tuesday afternoon to talk with subscribers to our Alpha Money Flow and Venture Fortunes research services.

We showed them some charts… discussed what’s up with the Fed… and took a look at where things have been and where they’re likely to head.

If you haven’t joined in on a call or if you don’t subscribe… you really should.

But the best part of the call – as always – were the questions.

Some of them were very important. They deserve to be covered here.

So here they are…

Is it time to buy puts and/or short the market?

The time to buy puts was back in November, when the market was at its peak… not now, when folks are panicking en masse. Without a doubt, we’re far closer to the bottom than we are to the top.

During the call, I showed some charts and data sets that show the S&P 500 is very close to its long-term mean. That means, yes, things may fall further, but they’re just as likely – if not more likely – to rise from here.

Remember, bear markets often provide some of the biggest pops in market prices. When volatility is high, it’s not unusual for stocks to move by four or five percentage points in just a few days.

That makes buying puts a move that should be made only by active traders who are willing to track the market and get in and out quickly.

Next question…

If the dollar tops out, is it time to invest in gold refiners and miners?

This is a very important question. There’s a lot more to it than you may realize at first glance. It has to do with interest rates, currency fluctuations and even global trade.

The simple answer is yes… absolutely, yes.

Right now, oddly enough, the dollar is one of the few assets on the planet that is rising in price.

It’s doing so because interest rates are on the rise. In Japan, for instance, they remain at 0%. In Europe, they’re coming up… but at a much slower pace than they are here.

Money goes, of course, where money is treated best.

Right now, that’s the greenback. But as the rate hikes flatten and inflation does what it does so well (kill currencies), gold will shine.

Look… gold has been flat, but it’s done its job superbly. It’s held its value.

That’s the real reason we own it. It’s an insurance policy.

What about crypto? Should we be buying, or is this the end of it all?

We spent a lot of time on this subject during the call. It’s vital.

We’re in another “crypto winter.” It’s no fun. But big-name investor after big-name investor sees the space for what it is… the early stages of full digitization.

We’ve said it before. The cryptos with real, tangible value will stick around and go higher.

The stuff that’s hot air and fluff… It deserves to go.

That’s what we’re seeing right now. Unfortunately, everything must go down before we’ll see a strong rise.

Virtually every financial insider on the planet is pointing toward the digitization of banking and investing. Today’s crypto stalwarts will lead the way.

If you liked them at last year’s prices… you should love them at today’s.

We do.

We won’t spill more ink on it. But if you want our full thoughts, check out our interview with Buck Sexton.

And finally, a question we didn’t get into during the call… but one that readers filled the mailbag with last week.

Controversy!

On the subject of requiring two years of service before becoming eligible for any government assistance… readers wanted to know why we specifically said it was for young men only.

What about the women?

You’re not going to like our answer.

We’ve had enough of the “fairness” stuff. The idea is rooted in good intent, but we’ve taken it well past its natural extreme. The Earth is a rough place. In Ma Nature’s world, you get what you deserve.

Until women are abandoning their families… shooting up schools… and committing crimes at a rate comparable to men… they can sit this one out.

Angry, lazy and ignorant men are our country’s biggest problem. Let’s start there.

Save “fairness for fairness’ sake” for the playground.

It does more harm than good.

Keep the questions coming. Email us at mailbag@manwardpress.com.

Andy Snyder
Andy Snyder|Founder

Andy Snyder is the founder of Manward Press, the nation’s premier source of unfiltered, unorthodox views on money and what it means for a free society. An American author, investor and serial entrepreneur, Andy cut his teeth at an esteemed financial firm with nearly $100 billion in assets under management. Andy and his ideas have been featured on Fox News, on countless radio stations, and in numerous print and online outlets. He’s been a keynote speaker and panelist at events all over the world, from four-star ballrooms to Capitol hearing rooms. Today, Andy’s dissident thoughts on life, liberty and investing can be found in his popular daily newsletter,  Manward Financial Digest.