Get Ready… A Huge Move Is Coming on July 28
Andy Snyder|July 11, 2022
Circle July 28 on your calendar.
It will be a hugely important day for our nation’s economy and the investors who track it.
It’s not the date of the next Fed meeting. There’s no new law that’s expected to hit the books. But with a single announcement at 8:30 that morning… history will be made.
You’ve heard us say it for months…
After a peak in unemployment, personal savings and stimulus… the high has worn off. Now comes the hangover.
Back when almost all of the noisy pundits were calling for a boom – the “Roaring ’20s,” they dubbed it – we were a bit more pessimistic. We called for a recession.
On July 28 at 8:30 a.m., it will officially be here.
That’s when the latest GDP figures will be announced. And if the modeling is correct, the figures will be quite dire.
Downturn
Things changed dramatically during the second quarter’s last few weeks. During a live call with our Manward Executive members, we discussed the Fed’s GDPNow feature. It’s an indicator that reports – nearly in real time – what the latest data is looking like.
During the last few weeks of June, the gauge went haywire.
First it dipped to zero, then it bounced a bit higher, and then… down she went. It plunged.
As we were talking with our Executive members, the Fed gave the last update for the quarter. June ended with the figure at -2.1%.
A horrific number.
If the gauge is anywhere close to the official figure that’s released on July 28, we’re in a recession… a recession that just two weeks ago the Fed, the Treasury and the president said was nowhere in sight.
The headlines will turn dire. Poll numbers will sink. And layoffs will soar.
The crowd that gets its news from The View and the Today show will be stunned to hear the facts. Whoopi will blame Russia. Hoda, confused, will turn to the latest pop star for advice. And the late-night hosts will skip the news entirely.
But stocks… oh boy, they’ll soar.
Get Ready!
Yes, you read that right. If we get the news we expect on July 28, stocks stand to have one of their best days in months.
The logic is simple. It’s what we’ve been saying all along.
The Fed will raise rates. It’ll slow a feeble, stimulus-addicted economy faster than it ever thought possible… and it will be forced to start discussing rate cuts by the end of the year.
A negative GDP print at the end of the month will confirm it.
We’re already seeing the telltale signs. Last week showed strong demand for ETFs as well as nearly chaotic short covering.
This early action confirms what we’ve said before…
The worst market conditions tend to come before the official declaration of a recession (which, by definition, trails behind true economic conditions). The excess volatility comes as fear rises and the market works to anticipate and price in the downturn.
Once a recession is declared, the market immediately begins to price in the recovery.
That makes July 28 a pivotal day.
The news won’t be good… but the stock market action will be.
Be prepared. It’s your chance to make your money back.
