When the Fed Will Cut Rates
Marc Lichtenfeld|January 18, 2024
A Note From Amanda: Oxford Club Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld has been on a tear with his recommendations… booking a 127% gain in his Technical Pattern Profits service in one month… and bagging a 118% win in his Penny Options Trader service in just five weeks.
The beginning of a new year is always fun. We reflect on our accomplishments from the past year and create goals for the new one.
My year started out great. I ran 5 miles on New Year’s Day – my longest run in more than a year.
The following day, I had a doughnut for breakfast, so I’m back to even.
I expect 2024 to be fascinating for the markets, the economy and our country. It will be a pivotal year in many ways.
Obviously, the election in November will have ramifications for years.
But in the nearer term, everyone is wondering whether the Fed will move interest rates… and if it does, in which direction.
The overwhelming consensus is that rate cuts are coming in 2024. I’m not so convinced. We’re not seeing much evidence of a slowdown. That doesn’t mean one can’t happen, but the Fed is not likely to get out ahead of a recession and reduce rates to ward off a slowing economy. It will probably wait until it’s painfully obvious that the economy is in a downturn to make a move.
An economic collapse doesn’t happen overnight (except during a global pandemic). And even if a black swan event does occur again, it’s hard to imagine our government or many others would immediately halt their economies, as they did in 2020.
Now, I’ve got a knack for seeing what lies ahead…
No Crystal Ball Needed
Last January, in the Annual Forecast Issue of my newsletter, The Oxford Income Letter, I said a new bull market would begin in 2023. One sure did. The S&P 500 gained 24% last year.
In 2022, I said value stocks would outperform growth stocks. It was certainly not a great year for value stocks, but their 7% drop was way better than the 30% haircut growth stocks took… and the 19% reduction the broad market saw.
And with oil at around $75 per barrel early in 2022, I observed that the oil market was undersupplied and projected that crude would soar to $140. It peaked above $130.
In January 2021, I wrote, “I expect inflation to take off [this year].”
Boy, did it ever. Inflation rose from 1.4% in January of that year to 7% in December… and eventually reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022.
Keep in mind, this was not a time when anyone was really expecting inflation. We were in the throes of the pandemic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had just called the U.S. economy “extraordinarily uncertain.”
And in this year’s Oxford Income Letter Forecast Issue, which came out on January 9, I explained why I’m once again bullish on energy. In fact, I made 10 predictions, including forecasts on interest rates (this one will surprise you), the markets, the economy and geopolitics… plus a shocking prediction about the U.S. presidential election.
I also recently joined Oxford Club Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green in The Oxford Clubroom, our new video platform that allows us to speak directly to our Members via livestream each week.
During our hourlong Clubroom session, Alex and I discussed our biggest predictions for 2024 in detail… and our Members absolutely loved it.
A Member who goes by “Mountain Steve” wrote…
“I find this Clubroom very informative. Great format. Great sharing of different beliefs. Thank you!!”
Johnny B. said…
“Great job, gentlemen. Thanks for sharing your insights.”
And another Member posted…
“Thanks guys and Club Members – appreciate all your input. Love the forum.”
That last note brings up an important point: The Clubroom isn’t just about Alex and me “talking at” our Members. It’s intended to be a communal, interactive experience.
And the feedback has been so overwhelmingly positive that we’ve decided to open the doors of the Clubroom to EVERYONE next week during The Oxford Club’s first-ever VIP All-Access Week.
If you’re interested in a full week of FREE insights from Alex and me… plus the opportunity to be a part of The Oxford Clubroom’s lively community of wealth builders… go here to add your name to our sign-up list.
I fully expect 2024 to be a wild year in a variety of ways. Investing successfully will require foresight, agility and the willingness to take action. If you have those three things, you should have a fantastic opportunity to make some serious money this year.
Marc LichtenfeldChief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club
Marc Lichtenfeld is the Chief Income Strategist of The Oxford Club. After getting his start on the trading desk at Carlin Equities, he moved over to Avalon Research Group as a senior analyst. Over the years, Marc’s commentary has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and U.S. News & World Report, among others. Prior to joining The Oxford Club, he was a senior columnist at Jim Cramer’s TheStreet. Today, he is a sought-after media guest who has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business and Yahoo Finance. His book Get Rich with Dividends: A Proven System for Double-Digit Returns achieved bestseller status shortly after its release in 2012.
Marc is the Senior Editor of The Oxford Income Letter, which is based on his proprietary 10-11-12 System. He is also the Editor of Technical Pattern Profits, Penny Options Trader and Oxford Bond Advantage.